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caoliu社区最新网址 - 基辛格依然活力十足,能够飞来北京出差
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  荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦控股预计本季度销售额为72亿至77亿欧元,毛利率介于50%至53%。

  公司表示,因关税政策存在不确定性,预测区间较常规范围有所扩大。

  花旗分析师指出,销售额指引中位数74.5亿欧元低于市场普遍预期的77.7亿欧元,毛利率中位数较市场共识52.4%低约91个基点。

  对于全年业绩,阿斯麦维持销售额300亿至350亿欧元的指引区间不变。

  美国银行发布4月全球基金经理调查。调查显示,随着特朗着的关税计划引发对美国经济增长放缓的担忧,美国例外论主题已达到顶峰。

  73%的受访投资者表示美国例外论已见顶。调查还显示,投资者预计特朗普的减税计划无法抵消关税对经济的影响。63%的投资者不认为减税将在今年下半年提振经济增长。

  全球增长预期降至30年来最低水平

  调查发现,美国关税推动全球增长预期降至30年来最低水平。

  美银表示,净82%的受访者认为全球经济将走弱,创下30年来的新高。42%的受访者认为可能发生经济衰退,而“硬着陆”(通胀下降伴随著显著的经济放缓或衰退)的可能性从3月的11%激增至49%。调查显示,”软着陆”(通胀放缓但经济不会过度放缓)的预期从64%降至37%。

  三成投资者预期今年降息两次

  调查表明,34%的受访投资者预期将降息两次,25%的受访者预期降息三次,16%的受访者预期降息四次或更多次。13%的投资者预测将降息一次,而9%的投资者预计美联储利率不会变化。目前联邦基金利率目标区间为4.25%-4.50%。

  通胀预预期走高

  调查显示,投资者预计未来12个月通胀将走高。净57%的受访基金经理预计12个月后全球CPI将走高。这是自2021年6月以来的最高水平。

  美国银行表示:“对通胀走高的预期较3月份飙升了50个百分点,是自2022年3月以来的最大月度增幅”。

  投资者的风险偏好降至近两年低点

  美国银行的月度全球基金经理调查显示,投资者的风险偏好在4月份下降,降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。

  该调查发现,净46%的受访投资者表示,他们承担风险的意愿低于正常水平。

  美国股票配置在两个月内降幅创纪录

  调查显示,过去两个月基金经理以创纪录的程度大大削减了对美股的配置。

  美银称:“仅在两个月内,美股配置就被大幅削减了创纪录的53个百分点。”4月份,投资者将美股配置降至净36%低配,为自2023年5月以来的最低配水平。调查还显示,创纪录数量的全球投资者希望削减美股配置。

  投资者更青睐英股、欧股,而非美股

  调查显示,投资者更喜欢英国股票和欧洲股票市场,而不是美国股票,因贸易关税前景令对美国经济成长的担忧笼罩美国股票市场前景。

  调查显示,投资者还青睐债券、公用事业和必需品类股,同时减持科技股、能源股和工业股。

  美国银行表示,多数投资者预计,到2025年,欧洲将成为表现最佳的股票市场。在接受调查的投资者中,净22%的人增持了欧洲股票。调查显示,相比之下,净36%的人减持美股,这是近两年来的最高水平。

  4月16日金融一线消息,在上证e互动平台,浙商银行回应投资者提问时表示,该行当前已部署DeepSeek并落地多场景应用。当前DeepSeek大模型已以试用形式接入信息资源中心“浙小智”,以总行业务层面为试点,提供知识问答、文本生成、智能问数三大范式能力,在知识检索、文件报告、经营看板赋能上已验证可用性、有效性。

  浙商银行表示,因DeepSeek大模型技术在提能增效上展现出的巨大潜力,未来该行会积极探索和落地新应用场景,围绕“基础赋能-业务提效-管理升级-技术支撑”的核心路径,覆盖前中后台及技术开发的全链路大模型应用,具体四方面建设内容如下:

  1.通用助手,作为大模型应用体系的底层支撑,为全行各部门提供通用化AI辅助能力;

  2.前台业务助手,聚焦客户触点智能化改造,构建覆盖全业务条线的智能服务矩阵;

  3.中后台管理助手,针对中后台核心管理需求,打造专业化智能管理工具;

  4.开发助手,面向科技部门构建全流程开发支持体系,通过代码生成、测试用例生成、缺陷智能定位等功能,缩短软件开发周期。

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