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  来源:穿透公司

  白酒龙头之一的泸州老窖,突然爆出一个大消息。

  4月24日,媒体报道称,从市场获悉,今天起,泸州老窖公司全国全品系停止订单接收,停止发货,至端午节前全国各公司(国窖、特曲、怀旧、窖龄、大成浓香)全面清理价格、渠道和政策。

  在新闻报道中,泸州老窖称此举是为了保证消费者体验感,保护渠道服务者利益。

  而从市场供需理论来看,这明显就是泸州老窖已经卖不动了,市场在持续恶化。

  当前白酒市场呈现“三高三低”特征:高库存、高倒挂、高竞争与低动销、低利润、低信心。

  泸州老窖停货的本质,是通过阶段性供需失衡打破恶性循环。

  这也是泸州老窖的常规操作了。

  类似的停货行为,泸州老窖多次上演:

  2019年春节前夕,泸州老窖宣布全面停货,理由是避免库存积压导致降价损失;

  2021年1月,泸州老窖宣布国窖1573全国停货;

  2024年6月,国窖157338度经典装停货;

  2025年2月,泸州老窖特曲60版停货。

  长期以来,泸州老窖通过“控量挺价”策略维持高端产品的品牌溢价,但市场需求疲软,价格倒挂问题愈发严重。

  中国酒业协会数据也显示,2024年超40%的经销商面临价格倒挂,其中800-1500元价格带的高端酒倒挂最为严重。

  国窖1573官方指导价为980元/瓶,但电商平台可谓节节败退。

  在拼多多上,其500ml38度产品在电商平台低至608元/瓶,远低于官方指导价。

  穿透君随手一搜淘宝,百亿补贴上,1573的500ml53度,价格已经来到778元。

  已经相当于降级至次高端市场。

  要知道,这可是前两年价格都在1000多以上,号称要比肩五粮液、茅台的拳头产品,在央视上,一句能品味的历史1573广告,频频亮相。

  不仅是高端产品遇到阻碍,泸州老窖在市场库存上,也是问题重重。

  库存压力则进一步加剧渠道矛盾,部分经销商为回笼资金低价抛货,形成恶性循环。

  有广东经销商称,目前“库存还有大把,没人打款。”

  而从财务上来看,泸州老窖仍在保持营收和利润增长,但增速明显放缓。

  2024年前三季度,泸州老窖营收243.04亿元,同比增长10.76%;归母净利润115.93亿元,同比增长9.72%。

  相较2021年~2023年超20%的营收增速,泸州老窖的增长已明显放缓,这表明市场需求正在减弱。

  2023年底,泸州老窖的存货已达116.22亿元,2024年三季度末进一步攀升至123亿元,创历史新高。

  更值得注意的是,泸州老窖的存货周转天数已达1148.94天,远超行业平均水平:五粮液:302.62天,山西汾酒:415.26天,洋河股份:702.06天。

  过几天,泸州老窖也将披露其最新的2024年年报,在其中,则更能过体现出其目前面临的困境。

  媒体报道称,泸州老窖此次通过全系停货,旨在短期内阻断低价货源流入市场,为渠道库存去化争取时间,同时为后续价格体系重塑铺路。

  通过暂停订单接收,泸州老窖可集中精力梳理市场价格乱象,确保端午旺季来临时产品价格稳定、渠道利润合理。

  对于泸州老窖此次举措,你怎么看?能够稳定下滑的市场吗?

  欧洲央行管理委员会成员OlliRehn表示,央行很可能需要进一步下调利率,且不应排除更大幅度降息的可能性。

OlliRehn

  尽管地缘政治和贸易带来的“普遍不确定性”要求官员们对下一步行动保持开放态度,但Rehn警告称,近期融资条件已趋紧,经济增长面临的风险也开始显现。

  “保持充分的政策灵活性至关重要,这意味着我们不应因假设的中性利率而设定特定门槛,也不应事先排除某种幅度的降息可能性,”他说道。“当前正是实施灵活且积极的货币政策的时候。”

  “如果到6月份,通胀率预计在中期内将降至我们2%的通胀目标以下,那么正确的反应是进一步降息,”他在华盛顿接受采访时表示。

  这位芬兰央行行长在国际货币基金组织春季会议期间发表讲话时称,即使情况并非如此,也没有太多理由暂停降息。

  “我们还需关注经济增长前景和金融状况,”Rehn表示。

  关于是否考虑实施更大规模的50个基点降息,Rehn表示:“这取决于中期通胀前景,以及经济增长前景将恶化或是改善的程度。” 

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