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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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毛利率持续下滑

休闲零食竞争内卷的今天,盐津铺子(002847.SZ)维持了相对稳定的增长。

2024年,盐津铺子实现营业收入约53.04亿元,同比增长28.9%;净利润达到6.40亿元,同比增长26.5%。

近两年,包含盐津铺子在内的休闲零食品牌通过积极拥抱量贩渠道,实现了业绩的显著增长。 

但随着渠道话语权的日渐膨胀,品牌也在提高产品性价比的过程中,一定程度牺牲了利润表现。

增收不增利的信号已经出现。

今年一季度,尽管盐津铺子营收仍维持25.7%的增幅,但归属上市公司股东的净利润仅1.78亿元,增速却放缓至11.6%。

一些微妙信号已在更早时显现。

2024年,盐津铺子毛利率降至30.69%,同比降2.85个百分点。

财报披露前的今年3月,盐津铺子四位副总则合计减持0.33%股份,套现约合5235万元。

对于当前的盐津铺子来说,优化产品结构和渠道结构,通过打造“品类品牌”重拾定价权,挽回毛利率下降势头,或许是当务之急。

吃到魔芋红利

2024年,魔芋零食市场规模突破120亿元,年增长率超20%,成为休闲食品领域的现象级品类。

魔芋本身无色无味,具备低热、低脂、低糖的特质,不仅切合当下流行的健康饮食概念,更具有良好的加工延展性。

早在五年前就布局了相关领域的盐津铺子,成功踩中这一波市场红利。

2022年、2023年魔芋制品收入分别同比增长120.32%、84.95%。

2024年,盐津铺子魔芋制品收入达到8.38亿元,同比大增76%,占总营收比重提升至15.81%。

大单品“麻酱素毛肚”今年3月实现月销售额破亿,该款产品上市仅16个月,打破了休闲食品单品破亿最快纪录。

华创证券分析师欧阳予表示,春节后淡季麻酱大魔王仍出现缺货,预计全年魔芋制品有望实现18-20亿的含税销售额,同比增幅80%-100%。

盐津铺子并非魔芋赛道唯一的玩家。

2024年,卫龙(9985.HK)以魔芋零食为主的蔬菜制品板块营收大幅增长59.1%,达到33.71亿元,与盐津铺子共同占据行业前二位置,CR2达到60-70%。

劲仔食品(003000.SZ)、良品铺子(603719.SH)、三只松鼠(300783.SZ)等也推出了同类产品补位布局。

品类景气度仍在高位,中信证券预估,魔芋休闲零食未来具备1-2倍增长空间。

旺盛的市场需求更推动原材料价格大幅上涨。

魔芋深加工企业一致魔芋(839273.BJ)曾透露,2024年上半年魔芋粉价格一直处于低位。但由于市场需求快速放量,当年6月价格触底反弹,并大幅走高。

2024年12月,鲜魔芋市场价格攀升至7600元/吨,同比翻倍。

由于魔芋种植条件受限且易受气候影响,供给端大幅度增长存在一定难度,短期内价格较难回落。

盐津铺子证券部工作人员告诉信风,公司通过以销定产、以产定购的方式,适当储备产能,但并未回应成本上涨对毛利带来的潜在影响。

魔芋成为公司推动海外市场探索的主力核心品类。

2025年,盐津铺子计划重点进攻海外魔芋销售占比达80%以上的泰国市场。

例如投资3000万美元新建泰国魔芋生产基地,并推出Mowon品牌本地化口味魔芋产品,进军东南亚、日韩及欧美市场。

2024年盐津铺子海外市场营收0.63亿元,较比去年同期翻了198倍。

未来三到五年,盐津铺子的战略是海外“再造一个盐津”,即销售额超过50亿元。

解绑渠道依赖

长久以来,盐津铺子意图通过多品类、全渠道的策略覆盖更广泛的消费群体。

对市场分散、进入门槛低的休闲零食行业来说,决定权并非完全归属于自身,而部分归属于话语权更强的下游渠道。

犹如电商时代跑出的三只松鼠,盐津铺子曾是渠道结构变化的获益者。

在董事长张学武看来,“零食量贩模式的未来值得期待,它迎合了消费力减弱、效率提升的趋势。”

顺应零售业的风向变化,盐津铺子近年来持续由高毛利、高运营成本的KA商超,转向低费用、低毛利的零食量贩店。

早在2022年,零食很忙就超越沃尔玛,成为了盐津铺子的第一大客户;2023年,盐津铺子更斥资3.5亿元获得鸣鸣很忙3.32%的股份。

量贩零食赛道爆发式增长的2023年,盐津铺子营收同比增长42.22%、归母净利润同比大增67.76%。

年初,盐津铺子从鸣鸣很忙股东行列中撤出,但从交易金额看,双方的合作关系依然紧密。

2024年,盐津铺子第一大客户贡献销售额12.6亿元,占年度销售总额比例达23.7%。

目前,盐津铺子直营商超渠道占比已不足4%,电商和量贩渠道收入占比扩大至20%以上,定量流通和大流通等渠道在10%和40%左右。

渠道结构的调整,虽为公司带来显著的市场份额,但对利润构成了压力。

2022年至2024年间,盐津铺子毛利率从34.72%降至30.69%。

随着两大龙头格局落定、门店整体规模破万家,市场预判量贩零食店的业务重心将很快从跑马圈地切换至盈利增长。

对盐津铺子而言,渠道变革的发展红利期接近过半。

目前几乎所有零食品牌都在加码零食量贩渠道,先发优势不再明显。

盐津铺子更多期望通过大单品战略,降低对单一渠道的依赖,应对来自折扣零售业态带来的价格挤压。

2024年,盐津铺子打造了“蛋皇”、“大魔王”等品类品牌,与性价比路线的主品牌进行区分。

“蛋皇”成功进入山姆会员店渠道,1kg装售价69.9元,首月超过10万包,登顶山姆新品热度榜。

借助高势能渠道建立品牌影响力后,盐津铺子将爆款产品铺向全渠道销售,进而享受溢价带来的业绩增量。

2024年,鹌鹑蛋零食营收近5.8亿元,同比增长81.87%。10月,“蛋皇”在蛋类零食中的月销量贡献达到了60%。

能否将魔芋、鹌鹑蛋的成功复制至更多品类,决定着这家零食企业的发展上限。

盐津铺子已有辣卤零食、烘焙薯类、深海零食、蛋类零食、果干坚果及蒟蒻果冻布丁六大核心品类。

2024年推行的组织架构调整,围绕六大品类成立辣味、甜味、健康三个品类事业部,聚焦大单品打造。新品研发将通过内部赛马的方式,交由市场、渠道进行筛选。

不过同期,公司投入研发费用却同比降低0.22%,研发费用率下滑0.4个百分点至1.5%。

较比三只松鼠的坚果、洽洽食品(002557.SZ)的瓜子、卫龙的辣条,盐津铺子与优势品类的绑定并不紧密。

盐津铺子在电话会上透露,一季度魔芋品类及蒟蒻、蛋皇等产品增速高于整体,预计全年可延续该趋势,利好全年毛利率表现。

根据股权激励目标,2025年盐津铺子营收将不低于56.4亿元,扣非净利润不低于8.13亿元。

这个目标并不低,要求盐津铺子的净利润将同比增长超过三成,净利率提升3.7个百分点至14.4%。

对于一季度净利润未及2亿元的盐津铺子而言,这会是个不小的挑战。

风险提示及免责条款

市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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