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笑傲之程浩郭襄传,尽享最热潮流与乐趣!
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  2025年4月,黑龙江天有为电子股份有限公司(以下简称“天有为”)的IPO进程引发市场高度关注。天有为高达93.5元/股的发行价,为A股市场年内发行价最高的新股,也是近14个月来发行价最高的新股,37.4亿元的募资总额也创年内新高。

  天有为以37.4亿元创下年内募资纪录,背后是资本对汽车智能化赛道的押注。然而,其客户依赖、财务异常及历史合规问题,与高估值、高募资形成鲜明反差。若未来现代汽车订单波动或社保补缴冲击利润,可能引发估值回调。投资者需警惕其“高增长”背后的数据真实性及行业周期风险。

  对单一客户构成重大依赖但不是行业惯例

  天有为对现代汽车集团的依赖程度十分高:2020年销售收入占比10.31%,2022年飙升至53.03%,2024年预计采购额达21.1亿元,占总营收近60%。这种依赖度远超行业正常水平(通常前五大客户占比低于50%),与现代汽车在华“收缩战略”(关闭工厂、削减车型)形成直接冲突。一旦订单波动,天有为将面临收入断崖式下跌风险。

  天有为对前五大客户的依赖程度明显高于同行可比公司。招股书中,天有为将德赛西威、华阳集团、均胜电子、航天科技作为可比同行上市公司。

  2020-2022年,德赛西威对前五大客户销售收入占总营收的比值分别为54.81%、49.97%、48.51%;华阳集团前五大客户集中度分别为46.01%、43.26%、38.05%;均胜电子前五大客户集中度分别为60%、57%、58%;航天科技前五大客户集中度分别为30.35%、32.68%、28.60%。

  天有为的大客户依赖并非行业惯例,尤其是德赛西威的客户都是知名头部汽车制造商,也没有出现客户集中度高的情况,而天有为却称“发行人客户集中度较高的情形符合行业特性”。

  招股书显示,王文博、吕冬芳夫妇直接持股86.14%,发行前通过亲属控制的合伙企业合计掌控91.49%表决权,“一家独大”。

  系统性社保违规触及监管底线 

  2020年,天有为未给员工足额足项缴纳社保的比例高达86%(2400人),至2022年末,仍有1557人未缴社保、1598人未缴公积金。

  尽管公司辩称“员工自愿放弃”,但人社部明确表示社保缴纳为法定义务,自愿协议无效。参考2023年鼎镁科技因社保缴纳比例96%仍被否的案例,天有为的合规性更堪忧。 

  若全额补缴,2020年利润将减少59.2%。此外,大规模欠缴暴露内控失效,或认定其会计基础薄弱,存在重大错报风险。

  注:本文创作借助AI工具收集整理市场数据和行业信息,结合辅助观点分析和撰写成文。

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