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  ◎记者张欣然

  在宏观经济持续恢复、内外部环境复杂多变的背景下,财政与货币政策同步加力,稳增长信号愈发明确。

  4月24日,财政部启动中央金融机构注资特别国债与超长期特别国债首发,总规模达2860亿元,体现出积极财政政策靠前发力。与此同时,央行当日宣布将于4月25日开展6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,实现5000亿元净投放,展现出货币政策对市场流动性的精准呵护,对政府债券顺利发行也形成有力支撑。

  分析人士表示,财政支出节奏前移,叠加货币工具加量续作,正共同构筑稳投资、促消费、稳预期的政策合力。

  两类特别国债首发结果出炉

  4月24日,财政部正式启动2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债与超长期特别国债的发行工作,首日合计发行规模达2860亿元。

  本次发行中,中央金融机构注资特别国债为5年期、规模为1650亿元、票面利率为1.45%,募集资金将用于补充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本。

  同时,财政部同步发行两期超长期特别国债,其中20年期发行规模为500亿元,票面利率为1.98%;30年期发行规模为710亿元,票面利率为1.88%,重点投向“两重”和“两新”项目,助力经济结构优化和高质量发展。

  据悉,2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债计划发行总额为5000亿元,本次为首期,后续将分批次推进。超长期特别国债全年计划发行1.3万亿元,期限涵盖20年、30年和50年,将于4月至10月按月分期发行。

  财政政策加快落地扩内需

  分析人士认为,增发超长期特别国债是更加积极财政政策的重要体现,将在稳投资、促消费、稳预期方面形成更强支撑,有助于在复杂多变的外部环境中保持经济运行在合理区间。

  事实上,在稳增长政策持续加力的背景下,中国经济在一季度实现良好开局,投资与消费均呈现积极恢复态势。

  国家统计局公布数据显示,一季度,基础设施投资(不含电力)同比增长5.8%,比去年全年加快1.4个百分点。3月,社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.9%,较1月至2月大幅上升1.9个百分点。累计来看,1月至3月,社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%,较去年全年加快1.1个百分点。

  在此基础上,财政政策再度发力。4月,财政部正式启动中央金融机构注资特别国债和超长期特别国债的发行,拉开了年内大规模债券供给的序幕。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,超长期特别国债的启动,体现了宏观政策在当前外部经贸环境复杂背景下向内需倾斜、向高质量发展发力的鲜明导向。

  王青表示,当前财政政策核心在于“快支出,强内需”,通过将部分原计划于下半年实施的财政支出前移至二季度,加快资金投放节奏,强化对实体经济的托底支撑。其中,超长期特别国债重点投向“两新”项目,将对制造业投资和居民消费形成直接拉动,有望对冲外需波动带来的压力。

  中信证券首席经济学家明明认为,资本补充将直接增强银行服务实体经济的能力。若按照“8倍乘数效应”计算,5000亿元注资约可撬动4万亿元信贷增量,有助于加大服务实体经济的力度。资本实力提升后,银行风险抵御能力显著增强,既能够为化解房地产风险、地方平台转型提供“安全垫”,也有助于做好金融“五篇大文章。”

  央行加量续作MLF呵护流动性

  货币政策同步加大对流动性的支持力度。央行4月24日宣布,25日将开展6000亿元MLF操作。本月有1000亿元MLF到期,这意味着4月央行MLF净投放达到5000亿元,为连续第二个月加量续作,而且加量幅度较上月的630亿元显著放大,表明央行加大通过MLF向市场注入中期流动性的力度。

  王青表示,央行大幅加量续作MLF,体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的积极协调,通过适时释放中期流动性,为政府债券顺利发行营造良好环境。

  民生证券固定收益首席分析师谭逸鸣认为,今年第二季度政府债券供给可能继续加速,尤其是超长期特别国债与中央金融机构注资特别国债计划逐步落地,发行高峰预计集中在5月至10月。尽管债券放量可能带来资金面压力,但随着央行流动性工具日趋多元,未来或通过加大买断式逆回购、持续加量投放MLF等方式对冲“挤出效应”,保障市场运行平稳。

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