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  汇通财经APP讯——在美元疲软的背景下,NZD/USD维持强劲反弹动能,自4月9日以来持续上涨,目前交投于0.6000附近。美国持续升级的贸易担忧情绪以及国内政治不确定性正逐步打压美元人气。据市场调查显示,“美元正在遭遇多重打击,从美联储独立性遭质疑,到特朗普政府再度强化贸易保护主义立场,这些因素共同促使投资者涌向其他货币。”

  美国政治风险升温,打压美元吸引力

  投资者情绪依旧脆弱,主要受到全球贸易谈判僵局影响。特朗普提议调查关键矿产进口,引发对美国通胀上升与经济放缓的担忧。此外,白宫对中国船舶加征港口关税,使全球航运面临干扰风险。

  特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的再次公开指责,也激化了市场对央行独立性的担忧。特朗普声称,若联储不尽快降息,美国经济可能陷入严重下行。

  新西兰贸易表现强劲,但RBNZ降息前景或限制升势

  基本面方面,新西兰3月出口同比大增19%,进口增长12%,实现9.7亿纽元的贸易顺差,为自2020年以来最高。这一强劲数据短期支撑纽元需求。

  然而,市场普遍预计新西兰联储将在5月会议上降息25个基点,年底前或累计降息至2.75%。这意味着尽管当前纽元受益于美元疲软,但在利差收窄背景下,其上行空间可能受限。

  经济学家戴维·谢泼德表示:“贸易数据令人鼓舞,但在全球经济放缓的背景下,新西兰国内利率调整可能成为限制纽元进一步走强的关键变量。”

  编辑观点:

  当前纽元兑美元的强劲走势主要归因于美元自身的系统性弱势,而非纽元基本面的全面改善。虽然新西兰贸易数据为其提供一定支撑,但市场对RBNZ即将启动新一轮宽松周期的预期,可能在中长期压制纽元升势。

  短期内,若纽元成功站稳0.6000并企稳于上升通道内,仍有机会测试0.6070甚至0.6100区域,但需密切关注5月RBNZ政策声明及全球贸易局势变化。

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