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周三亚市早盘,现货黄金一度跳水近40美元,最低触及3343美元/盎司。此前黄金价格强势上行,连续刷新历史高位,纽约商品交易所黄金期货周二盘中一度升至每盎司3509.90美元,首次突破3500美元关口。

当地时间22日,美国总统特朗普表示,无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,尽管他对美联储未更快降息感到失望。特朗普说:“我们认为美联储应该降低利率,现在是一个完美的时机。”分析师认为,相关表态降低了美联储货币政策剧烈转向的风险,也缓解了外界对美联储政策独立性的担忧,从而对黄金多头构成短线打击。

继续向3600美元靠拢?

尽管周三出现回调,黄金整体趋势仍维持强势。COMEX黄金期货周二结算价报3419.40美元/盎司,小幅下跌5.90美元,跌幅0.17%,此次金价上行的直接导火索是特朗普再次在社交媒体上点名批评鲍威尔,称其“太迟先生”(Mr.TooLate),暗示其对经济放缓反应迟钝,引发市场对美联储政策独立性的高度关注。

鲍威尔近期曾在公开场合强调,货币政策的独立性“属于法律问题”。

HeraeusMetals贵金属交易员祖姆菲(AlexanderZumpfe)指出:“当下投资者对政治干预货币政策的担忧,正在成为推动黄金的关键变量。”他表示,黄金近期技术支撑位在每盎司3450美元和3400美元,当前的上涨动能或将继续推动金价向3600美元靠拢。

黄金ETF持仓创阶段新高

此次黄金上涨并未因美股调整而承压。StoneX分析师康奈尔(RhonaO’Connell)称,这一现象打破了传统模式,显示黄金资产在当前宏观背景下被重新赋予更强的配置价值。

ETF持仓方面,截至目前,实物黄金ETF的持仓量已升至2023年9月以来最高,按市值计已创历史新高,这种结构性增持反映出市场对美元资产的信心正在减弱。

XS.com分析师古鲁(RaniaGule)表示:“当前黄金的上行趋势并非短期情绪推动,更反映了市场对全球政治、经济体系稳固性的重新评估。”

Pepperstone的布朗(MichaelBrown)补充道,在美国国内政策博弈不断加剧的背景下,黄金作为不受舆论波动影响的“稳态资产”,其避险价值被市场重新评估。分析人士认为,金价短期内仍将围绕美联储政策、美国政治博弈及地缘局势等不确定性波动,在流动性依然充裕的环境下,黄金的结构性上涨空间仍未关闭。

(本文来自第一财经)

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