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从头肉到尾的高干黄文-科技与生活的完美结合!

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  北京时间4月22日凌晨,美股周一遭遇“黑色星期一”,道指收盘重挫逾970点。美国总统特朗普再度督促美联储降息,并对美联储独立性发出威胁,使投资者担心美元信誉下降并导致美国经济下滑。

  道指跌971.82点,跌幅为2.48%,报38170.41点;纳指跌415.55点,跌幅为2.55%,报15870.90点;标普500指数跌124.50点,跌幅为2.36%,报5158.20点。

  科技股七巨头普遍下跌。英伟达下跌4.5%,亚马逊跌3.1%,谷歌A类股下跌2.3%。

  美国总统特朗普周一再度炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔,敦促他立即降息,其言论引发市场恐慌。

  “市场最恐惧的就是不确定性,”摩根大通策略师科拉诺维奇表示,“特朗普总统对央行的持续攻击,正在摧毁投资者最后的信心支柱。”

  值得注意的是,这是特朗普最近数日连续第二次公开施压美联储。此前他在TruthSocial发文要求“立即降息,不然经济就要放缓了”,并暗示考虑撤换鲍威尔。

  分析师指出,特朗普言论引发三重担忧:货币政策独立性危机、白宫与美联储对峙加剧、潜在经济前景恶化。

  在此之前,美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在上周三表示,他担心特朗普的关税可能会使央行面临通胀上涨和经济下滑的困难。

  特朗普再次敦促美联储降息

  特朗普周一再度抨击美联储主席鲍威尔,警告若不加息将导致经济减速。

  特朗普在其社交平台TruthSocial发文称:“成本下降趋势如此良好——正如我所预言——通胀几乎不复存在,但经济可能出现放缓!除非‘总是慢半拍先生’(一个彻头彻尾的失败者)现在立刻降息!”

  他表示,欧洲已经降息了七次,而鲍威尔总是“迟到”,除了在选举期间,他为了助力拜登竞选而降低了姿态。他表示,许多人呼吁“预防性降息”,称随着能源成本大幅下降,食品价格大幅下降,以及大多数其他“东西”呈下降趋势,几乎没有通货膨胀。

  此番言论加剧市场动荡。周一盘中,美股三大股指跌幅一度均超3%,道指最多曾下跌超过1300点。

  美联储当前的观望立场持续激怒特朗普。上周五其顾问透露政府正在研究罢免鲍威尔的方案,此举不仅引发对央行独立性的担忧,更令本已受贸易战激化困扰的投资者恐慌情绪加剧。

  围绕美联储独立性的质疑也损害了美股。特朗普上周四呼吁美联储降息,甚至暗示鲍威尔应该“下台”。

  上周五,美国国家经济委员会主任凯文-哈塞特表示,特朗普正在研究是否有权解雇鲍威尔。

  特朗普对美联储迟迟未降息感到沮丧,他上周在社交媒体上发文称,鲍威尔“被解雇的那一天越快越好!”白宫周五表示,官员们正在评估是否可以撤换这位美联储主席。这不是特朗普第一次批评鲍威尔对美国货币政策的态度。

  盛宝银行新加坡首席投资策略师CharuChanana表示:“由于地缘政治紧张局势愈演愈烈,市场情绪本已紧张,如今特朗普可能干预美联储的担忧又加剧了市场的不安。任何关于货币政策遭受政治干预的迹象,都可能削弱美联储的独立性,使利率政策前景变得更加复杂,而投资者本正期待在全球动荡中找到稳定。”

  特朗普的关税政策已经扰乱金融市场,并在4月引发国债和美元的抛售,动摇了人们长期以来对美国资产作为避风港的信念。特朗普上周对美联储和鲍威尔的持续攻击,加剧了市场对美国资产的信心危机。

  华侨银行外汇策略师ChristopherWong表示,对美联储的指责破坏了央行独立的原则,并可能使美国货币政策陷入政治化的风险,这将令市场极度不安。

  Wong说:“说实话,解雇鲍威尔的想法令人难以置信。如果美联储的公信力受到质疑,美元的信心将严重受损。”

  VitalKnowledge机构分析师AdamCrisafulli在研报中表示,投资者正在应对“宏观焦虑的新来源:特朗普对美联储独立性的威胁。这一威胁与特朗普的贸易战有关,因为尽管最近的市场波动和经济下滑风险上升,但由于未来几个月关税引发的通胀可能飙升,鲍威尔和他的同事们被迫保持观望。”

  Crisafulli表示:“股票、美元和国债同时暴跌表明,特朗普的贸易战已经引发了美国金融资产的外流,再多的谈判都无法逆转这一趋势。”

  美元指数跌破98关口

  周一早间美元下跌0.9%,ICE美元指数失守98关口,创2022年2月以来的最低水平,因对美联储独立性的担忧打压美元。美元走低推动金价创下历史新高,黄金期价上涨2.4%,突破每盎司3400美元。

  4月份迄今为止,美元已下跌约4.6%,其中兑欧元、日元和瑞士法郎的跌幅最大。

  所有G10(十国集团)货币兑美元全线上涨。日元、欧元和瑞士法郎纷纷上涨。日元的大幅走强也拖累了日本股票市场,日经225指数下跌1.3%。

  作为全球最有影响力的中央银行,美联储的公信力很大程度上建立在其远离政治干预、独立运作的历史基础之上。

  芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比警告不要动摇美联储的独立性。他表示:“几乎所有经济学家都一致认为,货币政策的独立性至关重要,美联储或任何央行必须能够独立完成自己的使命。”

  法国财政部长EricLombard也警告称,如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔,将危及美元的信誉,并可能导致美国经济不稳定。

  有迹象表明,投资者正在从美国市场撤资。德意志银行表示,一些中国客户已经减少了对美国国债的持仓,转而增持欧洲债券。该行中国宏观与新兴市场销售主管LillianTao指出,欧洲高评级债券、日本国债以及黄金可能成为美债的替代选择。

  与此同时,美国国债收益率曲线出现陡峭化——两年期国债价格上涨,而长期国债价格下跌。这表明市场押注美联储可能降息,同时也反映了投资者对长期美国资产的担忧。

  美国3月领先经济指标指数骤降预警经济增长疲软

  周一早间公布的一项关键美国经济前瞻指标大幅下滑。在关税政策悬而未决之际,该数据为今年美国经济亮起了增长疲软的预警信号。

  美国经济咨商局(TheConferenceBoard)周一公布数据显示,其领先经济指数(LEI)3月环比下降0.7%,较2月0.2%的跌幅显著扩大,超出接受调查的经济学家平均预期的0.5%降幅。

  截至3月的六个月内,该指数累计下滑1.2%,而此前半年已收缩2.3%。

  该机构商业周期指标高级经理Zabinska-LaMonica表示:“3月数据恶化主要源于三项指标。在关税政策宣布前经济不确定性激增的背景下,消费者预期、美股表现和制造业新订单均明显走弱。”

  不过她补充道:“现有数据尚未显示经济衰退已开始或即将来临。”

  焦点个股

  传英伟达终止LeptonAI运营。近日,网上曝出LeptonAI已通知用户,Lepton将于2025年5月20日正式停止运营,此后用户将无法再访问LeptonAI平台上的服务或提交的数据,建议用户在该日期之前尽快下载或备份所需数据。服务终止时,若用户账户中仍有未使用的积分,官方将会在关停后予以退款处理。

  特斯拉一季度欧洲销量全线暴跌。此外特斯拉官网显示,为量产人形机器人Optimus,特斯拉开始大规模招聘,涉及工程师、技术员等约80个岗位,招聘规模多于以往。

  有报道称,包括Facebook、WhatsApp和Threads在内,Meta旗下应用选择禁用苹果手机的AppleIntelligence功能。这一功能是苹果公司在iOS18中推出的智能功能,自去年10月iOS18.1版本发布以来,大多数应用默认支持其功能。

  当地时间周一,Alphabet旗下的谷歌将与美国司法部以及数十位州级别的检察长在华盛顿的法庭上进行激烈对峙,就法官将下令采取何种反垄断补救措施以防止该公司继续垄断线上搜索引擎与线上广告投放市场展开辩论。

  美国政府反垄断监管部门方面提出的补救举措包括:要求谷歌出售其Chrome浏览器业务、向竞争对手授权搜索引擎内部数据,并停止为在其他线上服务和终端设备上获得排他性的地位支付巨额费用等等改变举措。

  Strategy等加密货币概念股集体走高。

  奈飞Q1业绩及Q2指引均超预期。

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