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  本报记者 周尚伃

  见习记者 于  宏

  近期,上市券商一季度业绩轮廓逐渐明晰,密集披露的业绩预增公告揭示了多家公司归母净利润显著增长的态势,凸显出资本市场回暖背景下券商板块的业绩弹性。其中,综合实力雄厚的头部公司持续领跑,中小券商则展现出“弹性十足”的业绩表现。

  基于目前已披露的业绩预增情况,分析师普遍对上市券商一季度业绩持乐观态度,认为券商整体业绩有望超预期。开源证券非银金融行业首席研究员高超表示:“上市券商一季度业绩增速整体超预期,预计一季度交易量高增长、投资收益低基数是主要驱动力。”

  业绩弹性足

  截至4月16日记者发稿,共有9家上市券商发布了一季度业绩预增公告,均预计净利润实现较大幅度增长。

  从头部券商来看,券商“新巨头”国泰海通预计一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润112.01亿元至124.45亿元,同比增长350%至400%。中信证券预计一季度实现归属于母公司股东的净利润约65.45亿元,同比增长32%左右。华泰证券预计一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润34.37亿元至36.66亿元,同比增长50%至60%。

  同时,中国银河预计一季度实现归属于母公司股东的净利润27.73亿元至31亿元,同比增长70%至90%。中金公司预计一季度实现归属于母公司股东的净利润为18.58亿元至21.06亿元,同比增长50%至70%。中信建投预计一季度实现归属于母公司股东的净利润约18.43亿元,同比增长50%左右。

  中小券商业绩表现则“弹性十足”。其中,东北证券预计一季度实现营业收入14.85亿元,较上年同期增长25.94%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.02亿元,较上年同期增长859.84%。华安证券预计一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5.02亿元至5.58亿元,同比增长80%至100%。东吴证券预计一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润9.12亿元至10.03亿元,同比增长100%至120%。

  对于一季度上市券商业绩增长的原因,多家券商表示,主要得益于财富管理、投资交易等业务收入的增长。中信证券表示,一季度,公司锚定打造一流投资银行和投资机构的发展目标,积极服务实体经济,综合金融服务能力持续提升,财富管理、投资交易等业务收入同比增加较多。华泰证券表示,一季度,公司不断深化平台化、一体化与国际化运营,财富管理、机构服务、投资管理等主要业务线均同比显著增长。

  国泰海通业绩实现大幅增长的原因,除了上述提及的财富管理、投资业务向好之外,还涉及公司之间的吸收合并交易。国泰海通表示,一季度,公司主动把握市场机遇,全面推进零售、机构和企业三大客户服务体系建设,推进各项业务稳步发展,取得较好经营业绩。同时,公司积极推进换股吸收合并海通证券相关工作,加速向国际一流投资银行迈进。一季度,公司归属于母公司所有者的净利润增长的主要原因为吸收合并海通证券产生负商誉。

  “预计经纪与信用业务是上市券商一季度业绩增长的主要支撑,投资业务也同比改善。”国泰海通非银首席分析师刘欣琦预计,经纪及信用业务合计贡献增量收入的78.5%,是券商板块业绩增长的主要支撑。同时,预计投资业务同比有所改善。

  经纪、信用业务成“增长引擎”

  回顾今年一季度市场走势,Wind资讯数据显示,一季度A股日均交易额1.52万亿元,同比增长70.27%。上交所数据显示,一季度A股新开户数量为747.14万户,同比增长32.75%。

  “一季度上市券商业绩的增长,一方面受去年同期自营业务低基数效应影响,另一方面得益于一季度股票成交量同比高增带动经纪业务收入增长。”中信建投非银及金融科技首席分析师赵然表示,4月份以来,券商板块经历短暂回调后,性价比再度凸显,看好板块后续估值修复动能,核心逻辑在于业绩韧性筑牢安全边际,政策与宏观环境改善形成双重催化,板块估值具备向上空间。

  针对上市券商一季度整体业绩,方正证券研究所所长助理、金融首席分析师许旖珊表示:“预计上市券商一季度主营收入同比增长33.1%,归母净利润同比增长77.7%;剔除国泰海通吸收合并的负商誉影响后,预计一季度券商板块归母净利润同比增长51%。分业务看,预计一季度经纪、信用业务为券商业绩增长的主要驱动力,经纪、投行、资管、净利息、净投资收入分别同比增长65.7%、27.8%、2.8%、77.1%、2.7%。”

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