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  美国滥施关税广遭各界反对和批评——

  “单边霸凌不会得逞,多边合作才是正道”(国际视点)

  美国政府滥施关税加剧全球贸易紧张局势,严重干扰世界经济和贸易秩序,美方单边主义、保护主义做法持续遭到国际社会强烈反对和批评。多国人士认为,美国肆意挥舞“关税大棒”无视规则与底线,人为制造各种不确定性,将极大增加全球发展风险,最终将损害包括美国在内的各国人民的共同利益。中国坚定不移推进高水平对外开放,坚持同各国开展互利共赢合作、共享发展机遇,彰显了负责任大国担当。

  “美政府将关税当作简单粗暴的手段使用是极其不理智的做法”

  当前,美国各界对经济前景的悲观情绪不断上升。亚特兰大联储银行的经济分析模型显示,3月以来,美国第一季度经济增速预测值始终在负增长区间波动。4月17日更新的数据显示,一季度美国经济将萎缩2.2%。美国密歇根大学发布的数据显示,美国消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6.7%,显著高于3月的5%,达到1981年以来最高水平;长期通胀预期从3月的4.1%进一步上升至4.4%。长期通胀预期4个月来连续走高,显著高于去年12月3%的水平,显示通胀失控风险加大。

  美国《财富》杂志网站报道说,关税政策正成为美国经济格局中极具破坏性的因素,它颠覆生产供应链,推高通胀,对消费者构成威胁。美国关税规则不断变化,整个流程变得更加随意无序,本土企业难以跟进。不少经济学家警告,美国关税税率的剧烈上调将带来一系列负面影响,美国小企业可能首当其冲。

  据美国有线电视新闻网报道,美国“混乱的关税”及严苛的新征关税,正迫使美国众多小企业陷入困境:成本迅速飙升,长期存在的供应链被扰乱,增产扩张计划瞬间受阻,这些本土企业的生存面临威胁。一些小企业主抱怨,“多年的努力、乐观的前景似乎一夜之间就消失了”。

  美国企业家贝丝·贝尼克2017年创立了一家婴幼儿用品公司,今年她经营的产品进入了沃尔玛、塔吉特等连锁超市。贝尼克日前计划对她最大的一笔订单进行补货,但这一集装箱货物运抵美国的成本却高达23万美元。贝尼克说,小企业主正面临彻底破产的风险,“因为关税太高,我根本无力将产品进口到美国销售”。

  不少小企业主抱怨,他们尝试在美国本土进行采购、生产,但根本无法实现。经过两年的努力,美国小企业主凯瑟琳·伯克的一款玩具今年4月在中国的工厂正式投产,但现在面临高额关税冲击。伯克说,数十年来,中国在厂房建设、设备投资和劳动力培训方面投入巨大,产业链很完整。她曾尝试在美国制造相关产品,“但能合作的本地企业根本没有,(这类企业)已经消失几十年了”。

  美国PNC金融服务集团首席经济学家古斯·福彻说,员工人数少于50人的小企业雇用了近一半的美国劳动力,这是美国就业和经济增长的关键驱动力,但如今小企业面临关税带来的最直接风险,“如果你是小企业主,你就没有议价能力”。如果小企业不堪重负,将会显著拖累经济。

  代表美国汽车经销商、供应商和几乎所有主要汽车制造商的六大汽车行业组织日前罕见联名致信美国财政部长、商务部长和美国贸易代表,呼吁联邦政府不要对进口汽车零部件加征关税。信件警告:“大多数汽车供应商没有做好准备应对关税政策突然引发的混乱,很多供应商已经处于经营困难并将面临停产、裁员和破产。只要一个供应商无法供货,就会导致整条汽车生产线关停。”信件强调,这六大行业组织代表着美国第一大制造业,在全美50个州提供1000万个就业岗位,每年为经济注入1.2万亿美元。

  《今日美国报》专栏作家戴斯·波塔斯刊文称,“美政府将关税当作简单粗暴的手段使用是极其不理智的做法”。美国如今甚至无法填补现有的制造业岗位空缺。据美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行数据,美国目前有近50万个制造业岗位空缺。

  “保护主义和贸易壁垒不是解决问题的出路”

  国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃日前表示,美国实际关税税率显然已跃升至“几代人都没见过的水平”。贸易壁垒升高会立即冲击经济增长,而从长期来看,保护主义将削弱生产效率,对小型经济体的冲击尤为严重。格奥尔基耶娃说,现代供应链的复杂性意味着进口原材料影响着众多国内产品,而一件商品的成本可能受到数十个国家关税政策的影响。在这个双边关税税率起伏不定的世界里,企业规划变得异常困难,后果是货轮在海上不知该驶向哪个港口、投资决策被推迟、金融市场动荡、预防性储蓄增加。“不确定性持续越久,代价就越大。”

  联合国工业发展组织(工发组织)近日在其网站上发表文章说,美方滥施关税的做法是错误的。加征关税将推高工业生产成本,降低经济效率,抵消贸易红利,削弱竞争能力,最终危及全球就业,并且会给经济最脆弱的国家带来最沉重的打击。美国加征关税并非基于事实,也不会取得预期效果,“保护主义和贸易壁垒不是解决问题的出路”。工发组织呼吁加强全球合作,共同构建更加公正、可持续的国际贸易和经济体系,使各国尤其是发展中国家和最不发达国家能从全球经济中充分获益。

  德国经济研究所日前发布的研究报告说,美国关税政策制造高度不确定性,对全球投资环境构成严重威胁,不仅违反世界贸易组织相关规则,其关税计算方法也缺乏科学依据。美在对欧服务贸易等领域长期保持大规模顺差,这一因素被美方有意忽略。报告呼吁欧盟采取有力反制措施。报告同时显示,未来4年内,美关税措施可能令德国损失2900亿欧元、欧盟损失1.1万亿欧元。

  阿联酋政策中心主席伊卜提萨姆表示,中东国家应该重新评估对美贸易依赖,寻求更多元的经贸伙伴关系。国际社会迫切需要推动构建更加公正、合理、可持续的多边贸易体制,从而为优化基于规则的全球经济体系铺平道路。阿拉伯政治经济学家穆斯塔法·优素福也认为,美国滥施关税严重损害国际贸易体系,世界正加速“向东看”“向南看”,推动形成一个更加公正平衡的全球贸易模式。

  “中国作为一个可靠合作伙伴变得越来越有吸引力”

  英国《金融时报》日前刊登对摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙的专访文章说,美国掀起的贸易战可能会损害美国的国际信誉,美国的经济领导地位面临挑战。当前的贸易不确定性正在动摇外界对美国的信任。

  新加坡国务资政李显龙近日表示,美国推行的“美国优先”本质上是零和博弈。作为世界第一大经济体,美国退出国际规则体系将对世界其他国家造成显著冲击。新加坡将继续坚定支持自由贸易、多边主义及世界贸易组织。

  《纽约时报》的一篇文章称,美国政府的做法损害了自身国际形象,加大世界经济衰退风险,中国则日益成为一个更稳定、更可靠的经济伙伴。

  瑞士《新苏黎世报周日版》报道说,在当前关税冲突背景下,各界应更加关注中国,“中国的政策比美国更稳定,中国也很好地遵守世界贸易组织的规则”。

  德国电视二台近日援引美国马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济学教授伊莎贝拉·韦伯的话称:“美国成了一个极难预测的合作伙伴,而中国作为一个可靠合作伙伴变得越来越有吸引力。”

  阿联酋金叶咨询公司专家若尔热特表示,在美关税政策冲击国际经贸秩序之际,中国一季度经济同比增长5.4%,是世界经济增长的稳定器。“中国经济表现良好,展现了韧性,中国科技创新和高科技人才在其中发挥了重要作用。中国前来阿联酋投资的金融科技和数字服务企业正迅速增加,这折射出中企加快国际化步伐及中国经济的蓬勃发展势头”。

  摩洛哥“非洲精神”奖基金会主席贝勒哈亚特近日撰文指出:“美国挑起关税战,严重冲击多边主义和全球贸易体系,这种单边霸凌不会得逞,多边合作才是正道。中国坚定维护多边贸易体系,呼吁加强对话合作,表现出弥足珍贵的智慧与成熟。”(本报记者邹志鹏李志伟管克江郭梓云)

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