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  来源:券业观研

  仅用时4个多月,华夏基金“ETF一哥”张弘弢的管理规模就从4555.89亿元彻底归零。

  4月19日,华夏基金发布公告,张弘弢因个人原因卸任华夏中证红利质量ETF及联接基金,并已在中国基金业协会完成变更登记,离任生效日为2025年4月17日。

  张弘弢此次卸任产品与以往不同,已按规定在中基协办理了注销手续,而非简单的变更手续。目前,中基协官网的基金经理人员信息中已无法查询到张弘弢的相关信息。但在天天基金网上,仍列有其总经理助理等职务。因此,关于其是否会从华夏基金离职的市场传闻尚无定论。

  这一消息不仅宣告了华夏基金“张弘弢时代”的终结,更将这家被动投资巨头推至战略转型的十字路口。

  01

  从“ETF帝国”到管理规模归零

  张弘弢被誉为华夏基金“ETF一哥”,2004年其作为研发团队核心成员,参与推出中国首只ETF产品华夏上证50ETF。

  2020年第四季度,公募基金市场异常火爆,催生了首批三位管理规模超千亿的基金经理,张坤、张清华和张弘弢,被市场称为“三张”。

  发展至2024年三季度末,张弘弢的管理规模已达4561.44亿元,在全市场3757位基金经理中排名第十,仅次于管理货币基金的基金经理柳军。

  正当市场普遍预期张弘弢将在ETF领域续写辉煌之际,他出人意料地宣布大规模卸任。2024年11月,张弘弢首次卸任7只产品,其管理规模在半年内骤降至8.34亿元,最终于2025年4月清零。

  尽管华夏ETF规模连续20年稳居行业第一(2024年末非货ETF规模6584.81亿元),部分产品却深陷“规模越大、亏损越重”的怪圈。其中,张弘弢管理的华夏科创板50ETF联接A任职期间回报率为-22.40%;华夏科创50ETF任职期间回报率-29.93%,大幅跑输同类平均水平,导致基民持有期累计亏损超328亿元。

  张弘弢的离任暴露出华夏基金在被动投资领域的人才储备短板。接任者杨斯琪虽具备10年从业经验,但管理超500亿元规模产品的履历尚属空白,而主动权益领域周克平、郑泽鸿等明星基金经理的相继离职,进一步加剧了市场对其投研团队稳定性的担忧。

  02

  “能源一哥”“科技名将”纷纷卸任

  除张弘弢外,去年7月,华夏基金权益投资团队核心成员也出现人事变动。根据公告,郑泽鸿于2024年7月12日卸任华夏核心制造混合、华夏时代领航两年持有混合等 4 只基金,卸任时管理规模合计达166亿元。

  公开资料显示,郑泽鸿在2016年加入华夏基金,其管理的华夏能源革新股票曾因精准布局新能源赛道,于2021年一季度末以226亿元规模登顶全市场最大新能源主题基金,公司官方公众号“华夏基金财富家”当时专文称其为“能源一哥“。

  然而其后期管理业绩显著承压。Choice数据显示,在郑泽鸿任职期间,华夏核心制造混合、华夏时代领航两年持有混合、华夏成长先锋一年持有混合的任职回报率分别为-19.40%、-14%、-26.44%,均低于同期偏股混合型基金平均收益水平。

  此次卸任距其2021年巅峰期仅三年,折射出华夏基金主动权益管理团队近年来面临的业绩压力。值得关注的是,郑泽鸿卸任后,上述产品由华夏基金新生代基金经理刘自强、严筱筱接棒,但截至2024年末,相关基金规模已较卸任时缩水超40%。

  在“能源一哥”郑泽鸿清仓式卸任八个月后,华夏基金旗下的“科技名将”周克平上月也对其管理的所有产品进行了清仓式离任。

  华夏基金3月8日公告,因个人原因,周克平旗下已于3月6日同时卸任华夏核心科技6个月定开、华夏创新未来混合(LOF)、华夏创新视野一年。自此,周克平已无在管产品。

  周克平是华夏基金从“零”培养的基金经理。根据公开资料显示,周克平于2014年7月在北京大学光华管理学院取得硕士学位后加入华夏基金,历任机构权益投资部研究员、投资经理助理,至卸任已在公司积累了超过10年的投研经验。

  自去年6月起,周克平开始逐步卸任其管理的产品。截至2024年年末,其在管规模已缩减至33.43亿元。回顾过去几个季度,从2020年四季度至2023年一季度末,周克平曾连续10个季度位列百亿基金经理阵营。

  由于周克平在科技板块的专注,华夏基金曾为其冠以“科技名将”的称号。然而,Choice数据显示,在其任期内,此次卸任的华夏创新视野一年A、华夏创新未来、华夏核心科技6个月定开A等产品均出现不同程度的亏损,跌幅分别为37.41%、40.95%和6.14%。

  值得注意的是,除了华夏核心科技6个月定开A,周克平历任产品的任职回报在同类产品中的排名均处于后30%,这引发了市场对其投资策略和业绩表现的广泛讨论。

  03

  被动投资狂欢下的主动权益失速

  除核心人物卸任引业内关注,华夏基金2024年财报也呈现出“冰火两重天”的景象。

  根据天天基金网显示,2022-2024年,华夏基金旗下基金净利润分别为1121.83亿元、-559.89亿元、1331.90亿元,虽在2024年净利润转正,但合计仍亏损349.82亿元。管理费方面,2022-2024年分别收取94.48亿元、100.14亿元、108.43亿元,合计303.03亿元。

  根据中信证券年报,华夏基金全年实现营收80.31亿元(同比+9.61%),净利润21.58亿元(同比+7.20%),管理规模突破2.46万亿元。这一增长主要依赖被动投资的爆发式扩张,而主动权益业务的低迷已成为显性短板。

  在2024年“活跃资本市场”政策下,华夏基金通过降费策略(宽基ETF管理费降至0.15%)和主题产品布局(如碳中和ETF、科创100ETF)持续吸引增量资金,全年股票ETF净申购额超1200亿元。

  Choice金融终端显示,2024年华夏基金权益类产品平均收益率仅为-18.72%,大幅低于同期偏股混合型基金-8.56%的平均水平。其中,华夏优势精选股票全年亏损33.12%,在746只同类产品中排名倒数第11;曾被寄予厚望的华夏智造升级混合A、华夏新起点混合C等产品跌幅均超 30%。2024年主动权益收益排名前50的产品中竟无华夏身影,与2023年“华夏北交所创新中小企业精选混合”摘得年度冠军的盛况形成强烈反差。

  同时,天天基金网显示,华夏基金主动权益管理规模正经历显著收缩,股票型与混合型基金规模三年累计降幅均超四成。截至2024年末,华夏基金主动权益类产品(含股票型、混合型)管理规模为3200亿元,较2021年峰值缩水超1300亿元。股票型基金规模从2021年末的434.19亿元降至248.93亿元,降幅42.67%;混合型基金规模从2102.07亿元腰斩至1157.94亿元,降幅达44.91%。

  与头部同业相比,华夏基金主动权益规模占比显著偏低。易方达、嘉实基金同期主动权益占比均超25%,而华夏基金15%的占比已落后行业平均水平(22%)。

  究其原因,业绩不佳是成为华夏基金去主动权益管理规模缩水的核心导火索。2022至2023年,华夏基金旗下权益类产品合计亏损达1758亿元,在全行业148家基金公司中排名倒数第二,严重挫伤投资者信心。以华夏中证800指数增强基金为例,2024年基金份额缩水45%,净资产规模同比下降40%,赎回压力显著加剧。

  券业观研认为,在ETF规模竞争陷入红海、主动权益又难出爆款的情况下,华夏基金亟需打破“被动强、主动弱”的失衡结构,否则可能面临客户流失与品牌溢价双重损耗。

  04

  总结

  华夏基金的上述人事调整并非个案,其面临的挑战正成为公募行业共性问题的缩影。

  2024年,资本市场ETF数量突破1000只,仅中证500ETF就有18家机构发行。华夏基金虽以规模优势维持管理费收入,但宽基ETF平均费率已降至0.12%,较2020年下降60%,压缩利润空间达23%。

  同时,易方达、华泰柏瑞等对手加速追赶,华夏基金非货ETF规模领先优势从2023年的1200亿元缩窄至500亿元。在中证A500ETF等新赛道布局中,其市场份额被国泰、银华等中型基金公司分食。

  此外,受到历史遗留问题影响,华夏基金品牌风险持续发酵。2023年,“夏云龙老鼠仓案”及“童汀违规交易案”曝光后,华夏基金被暂停特定客户资产管理业务6个月,暴露出内部风控漏洞。2024年中证A500ETF宣传中“规模最大”表述引发监管问询,再度反映出营销合规管理的薄弱环节。

  张弘弢的卸任,本质上是中国公募基金行业从“规模扩张”转向“能力建设”的缩影。券业观研认为,当ETF规模红利见顶,华夏基金单一依赖某类业务的时代已然过去,唯有构建“被动投资稳健底盘+主动管理特色引擎”的双轮驱动模式,才能在监管趋严、竞争加剧的市场中突围。

  据国际文传电讯社报道,俄罗斯经济部一位官员预计,2025年布伦特原油均价将达到68美元/桶。经济部更新宏观经济预测;此前在2024年9月的估计为每桶81.7美元。俄罗斯经济部将2026年布伦特原油价格预测从77美元/桶下调至72美元/桶;将2027年预测从74.5美元/桶降至72美元/桶。该部门预计2025年乌拉尔原油价格为56美元/桶,2026年乌拉尔原油价格为61美元/桶。

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